Every macro term that moves Bitcoin and crypto markets — explained in plain English. No jargon. No signup needed.
Any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. The term comes from "alternative coin." Examples include Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and thousands of others. Altcoins typically have higher risk and higher potential reward than Bitcoin, and tend to rise more in bull markets and fall more in bear markets.
A period in the crypto market when altcoins collectively outperform Bitcoin. Officially declared when 75% or more of the top 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. Typically occurs when Bitcoin dominance falls sharply, capital rotates out of Bitcoin, and risk appetite is high.
A unit of measurement used in finance to express small changes in interest rates or percentages. One basis point equals 0.01%, or one-hundredth of a percentage point. 100 basis points = 1%.
Every ~4 years (every 210,000 blocks), the reward miners receive for adding new Bitcoin to the network is cut in half. This reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. The last halving was in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. The next halving is expected in April 2028.
A sustained market decline of 20% or more from a recent high. In traditional markets, bear markets typically last 9-12 months. In crypto, bear markets are more severe — Bitcoin has historically declined 70-85% from peak to trough. Bear markets are typically accompanied by widespread pessimism and negative sentiment.
A sustained market rise of 20% or more from a recent low, typically accompanied by widespread optimism and increasing investor confidence. In crypto, bull markets are historically extreme — Bitcoin has risen 5x to 20x from cycle bottoms to peaks. Bull markets are typically fueled by expanding global liquidity and falling interest rates.
Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, expressed as a percentage. Calculated as: Bitcoin market cap ÷ total crypto market cap × 100. A rising BTC dominance means capital is flowing into Bitcoin relative to altcoins. A falling dominance signals capital rotation into altcoins.
A monthly measure of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The most widely used gauge of inflation. The Federal Reserve targets 2% annual inflation.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Unlike CPI, Core PCE adjusts for changes in consumer behavior — if beef gets expensive, consumers switch to chicken, and PCE reflects that substitution. It excludes food and energy prices.
Measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies: Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). Bitcoin and the DXY historically move in opposite directions.
A central bank stance that favors lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. A dovish Fed signals it will ease monetary conditions — which typically weakens the dollar and acts as a tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. The term comes from the dove, symbolizing peace and accommodation.
A chart published by the Federal Reserve four times per year (quarterly) showing each FOMC member's anonymous projection for where interest rates should be at year-end for the next 3 years. The median dot is what markets focus on — it represents the collective view of Fed members on the future rate path.
The interest rate at which US banks lend money to each other overnight. Set by the Federal Reserve 8 times per year. When it rises, borrowing becomes more expensive across the entire economy. When it falls, credit becomes cheaper and money flows more freely into risk assets like crypto.
The 12-member body within the Federal Reserve that sets US interest rates. It consists of 7 Fed Board Governors, the President of the New York Fed, and 4 rotating regional Fed presidents. It meets 8 times per year. Every FOMC decision — hold, cut, or hike — directly impacts global financial markets including crypto.
The Federal Reserve's practice of communicating its likely future policy actions to financial markets. Often more market-moving than actual rate decisions — because markets are forward-looking and price in expected future policy long before it happens. A single phrase change in a Fed statement can move markets globally.
A daily sentiment indicator that measures the emotional state of crypto investors on a scale from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). Maintained by Alternative.me. It combines volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, Bitcoin dominance, and Google Trends data into a single number.
The anxiety that others are profiting from a market move you are not participating in, leading to irrational buying decisions. FOMO is one of the primary drivers of crypto market tops — it causes retail investors to buy at peak prices, just before corrections. The Fear & Greed Index reaching Extreme Greed often reflects widespread FOMO.
The total market value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders during a specific period. Formula: GDP = Consumer Spending + Business Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports. Consumer spending alone accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP = technical recession.
The combined money supply of all major central banks — primarily the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, and Bank of England. Global M2 = the single most powerful macro indicator for Bitcoin. When multiple central banks expand simultaneously, the effect on risk assets is amplified.
The world's oldest store of value. Gold is a hard asset with a ~$21 trillion market cap. It tends to rise when: real interest rates are negative, the dollar weakens, geopolitical risk increases, or central banks are easing. Gold at all-time highs has historically preceded Bitcoin rallies by 2-6 months.
A central bank stance that favors higher interest rates to combat inflation. A hawkish Fed signals it will tighten monetary conditions — which typically strengthens the dollar and creates headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin. The term comes from the hawk, symbolizing aggression and firmness.
A financial product that tracks the price of an underlying asset and trades on stock exchanges like a regular share. The approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 — including BlackRock's IBIT — was a landmark event. It allows any investor to buy Bitcoin exposure through a standard brokerage account, without managing private keys. Total Bitcoin ETF AUM exceeded $100 billion within months of launch.
The recurring pattern of expansion, peak, contraction, and recovery that characterizes economic activity over time. Understanding where in the economic cycle we are determines whether macro conditions are supportive or hostile to risk assets like crypto. The cycle typically lasts 5-10 years.
Price points that have historically acted as strong support or resistance for Bitcoin. The three most important structural levels are the 50-week MA (bull/bear dividing line), the 200-week MA (long-term historical floor), and the Realized Price (aggregate cost basis of all holders). Breaking above or below these levels signals significant changes in market structure.
The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises over time, resulting in a decrease in purchasing power. The Federal Reserve targets 2% annual inflation as the optimal level. Too low creates deflation risk; too high forces rate hikes that slow growth and hurt risk assets.
Large professional money managers — hedge funds, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and asset managers — that invest on behalf of clients. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, institutional investors can access Bitcoin through standard brokerage accounts. Institutional ownership has fundamentally changed how Bitcoin trades.
The availability of money and credit in the financial system. High liquidity means abundant money, easy credit, and rising asset prices. Low liquidity means tight credit, scarce money, and falling asset prices. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to liquidity — it rises more than most assets when liquidity expands and falls more when it contracts.
Leverage means borrowing money to amplify potential returns — and losses. In crypto, traders can use 2x to 100x leverage on derivatives platforms. Liquidation occurs when a leveraged position loses enough value that the exchange automatically closes it, forcing the trader to absorb the loss. Mass liquidations amplify price moves in both directions.
A measure of the total amount of money in the financial system — including cash, bank accounts, savings accounts, and money market funds. When M2 grows, there is more money looking for returns. Historically, rising M2 has been a tailwind for Bitcoin prices.
A Bitcoin on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin's current market capitalization to its realized capitalization (the aggregate cost basis of all holders). MVRV above 3.5 has historically signaled market tops. MVRV below 1 has historically marked generational buying opportunities.
A technical indicator that calculates the average price of an asset over a specific time period, updated continuously. Key Bitcoin moving averages: 50-week MA (~$52K, May 2026) = the dividing line between bull and bear market structure. 200-week MA (~$31K) = the long-term historical floor. 200-day MA (~$82.5K) = critical medium-term resistance/support.
The total market value of an asset, calculated as: current price × circulating supply. Bitcoin's market cap is approximately $1.6 trillion (May 2026). The total crypto market cap is approximately $2.8 trillion. For context: global gold market cap is ~$21 trillion; global stocks ~$109 trillion; global bonds ~$133 trillion.
Data derived directly from a blockchain — including transaction volumes, wallet addresses, coin movements, and holding patterns. On-chain analysis is unique to crypto: it provides transparency that no other asset class has. Key on-chain metrics include: Realized Price, MVRV, exchange flows, long-term holder supply, and more.
When the Federal Reserve creates new money and uses it to buy government bonds from banks. Banks receive more cash, which flows into the financial system — into stocks, real estate, and eventually crypto. QE expands the Fed's balance sheet and historically drives risk assets higher.
The reverse of QE. The Fed shrinks its balance sheet by letting bonds mature without buying new ones. This removes money from the financial system, tightens credit conditions, and historically creates headwinds for risk assets including Bitcoin.
A Bitcoin-specific metric showing the average price at which all currently circulating Bitcoin was last transacted on-chain. Think of it as the aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin holders. When Bitcoin's market price is above the Realized Price, the average holder is in profit. When it falls below, the average holder is at a loss.
Terms describing broad shifts in investor sentiment. Risk-on: investors feel confident and move money into higher-return assets like stocks, crypto, and commodities. Risk-off: investors feel uncertain and move money into safer assets like government bonds, gold, and cash. Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset — it rises more in risk-on and falls more in risk-off.
Measures the market's expectation of S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days, based on options prices. Often called the "fear gauge." A low VIX (below 15) signals calm markets — historically good conditions for risk assets. A high VIX (above 30) signals fear and uncertainty. VIX above 40 indicates panic-level conditions.
A chart showing interest rates on US government bonds across different time periods — from 3 months to 30 years. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, the curve is said to be "inverted." An inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1950 — zero false positives, zero misses in 70+ years.
The monthly US jobs report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of every month. It measures how many jobs were added or lost in the US economy (excluding farming). One of the most market-moving data releases of any given month.
A broad measure of consumer spending in the US economy. The Federal Reserve uses the Core PCE price index (PCE excluding food and energy) as its primary inflation gauge. Published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. See also: Core PCE.
Measures changes in prices that producers (factories, farms, mines) receive for their output — before those costs reach consumers. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. PPI is considered a leading indicator for CPI because rising producer costs are often passed on to consumers.
A significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months. The technical definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Recessions typically bring rising unemployment, falling corporate profits, and lower consumer spending.
The smallest unit of Bitcoin. 1 Bitcoin = 100,000,000 satoshis. Named after Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. As Bitcoin's price rises, smaller denominations like satoshis become more practical for everyday transactions and pricing.
A cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value — typically pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. The largest stablecoins are USDT (Tether) and USDC (USD Coin). Fiat-backed stablecoins hold $1 in reserve (cash or Treasury bills) for every token in circulation. Total stablecoin market cap exceeded $315 billion in early 2026.
An event that suddenly reduces the available supply of an asset, which can drive prices higher if demand stays the same or increases. Bitcoin halvings are programmatic supply shocks — they cut the daily issuance of new Bitcoin in half every ~4 years. Bitcoin ETF inflows also create supply shocks by removing BTC from the open market.
The return an investor earns by holding a US government bond (Treasury) to maturity. Treasury yields move inversely to bond prices. The 10-year Treasury yield is the global benchmark interest rate — it is used to value virtually every financial asset on earth.
The gradual reduction of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases (QE). When the Fed "tapers," it is not yet removing liquidity — it is simply adding liquidity more slowly. Tapering signals that the era of easy money is ending, and rate hikes may follow. The announcement of tapering often causes more market volatility than the tapering itself.
The percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking work but cannot find it. Published monthly in the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Federal Reserve targets maximum employment as part of its dual mandate. A rising unemployment rate typically increases pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
Software or hardware that stores the private keys needed to access and transfer cryptocurrency. A crypto wallet doesn't actually store coins — the coins exist on the blockchain. The wallet stores the cryptographic keys that prove ownership. "Not your keys, not your coins" — if you don't control your private keys, you don't truly own your Bitcoin.
An individual or entity that holds a very large amount of cryptocurrency — large enough that their buying or selling can move the market price. In Bitcoin, entities holding 1,000+ BTC are typically considered whales. Whale activity is tracked on-chain and often used as a market signal.